On the back of rising crude oil purchases, India's bill for imports from sanctions-hit Russia jumped 3.5 times in a year in April to $2.3 billion, showed data from the commerce ministry. In April, India's crude oil imports from Russia were valued at $1.3 billion, 57 per cent of India's total inbound shipments from Russia. Other major imported items during the month included coal, soybean and sunflower oil, fertilisers, and non-industrial diamonds. That month, Russia was also the fourth-largest crude petroleum supplier to India, after Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
'The touchstone is reciprocity which will be applied to friends and foes alike.' 'It will be a bitter pill to swallow.'
Investors are showing some interest in the downstream energy cycle. Refiners and marketers, especially the public sector (PSU) oil marketing companies (OMCs) could see a revival of marketing margins. Lower crude oil and gas prices may also improve margins in industries like paints, logistics, synthetic fabrics, plastics, and fertilisers. In the medium-term, however, there could be a supply overhang affecting OMCs as new refining capacities are scheduled to be commissioned, especially in China, and this may lead to a drop in the refining margins as capacity would be surplus to demand until and unless there's a pick-up in global growth.
India is deeply concerned over the spike in the price of oil due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and it is "breaking our back," External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said. Addressing a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken after holding bilateral talks, Jaishankar on Tuesday said there is a very deep concern among developing countries about how their energy needs are addressed. Speaking about the Ukraine war, he said: "We have taken the position privately, publicly, confidentially and consistently that this conflict is not in anybody's interest."
Iran has offered to help India meet its energy needs by relaunching rupee-rial trade for export of oil and gas, said Iranian ambassador to India Ali Chegeni. Chegeni said if both the countries resume rupee-rial trade, bilateral trade can touch $30 billion. Iran used to be India's second largest oil supplier but New Delhi had to halt imports after the former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran and re-imposed sanctions on its oil exports.
A few years ago, when top officials of Indian state-run refiners went to Dubai to negotiate a crude oil supply contract, a senior official from state-owned Saudi Aramco told them, "We can negotiate on anything, but I am the last man standing for you. "Nobody can offer the range of crudes we do with certainty," an official who was part of the negotiating team recalls. Perhaps that explains why Saudi Arabia is less concerned about losing its place as India's premier oil supplier to an upstart like Russia, which emerged from nowhere to become India's biggest crude oil supplier in September and October.
Come December, India may have to re-evaluate purchases of Russian oil if a price cap on crude oil proposed by the US and the European Union (EU) comes into effect. That impacts nearly a quarter of India's oil purchases that come at a discount, helping limit marketing losses for India's state refiners and enabling New Delhi to manage inflation by freezing pump prices of motor fuels. In September, India imported 1 million barrels a day or 24 per cent of its overall imports from Russia, which became the biggest supplier of oil to India.
Russia has been grappling with sanctions slapped by the US and its allies over Moscow's invasion of Crimea.
'He needs to see results while he is in office.'
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
Carter was in politics, but not a politician, certainly not a transactional politician, points out Shreekant Sambrani.
The President said he made the decision in consultation with European allies but added they may not be in a position to join the US in banning Russian energy imports.
'Russia has got inherent military strength, they have a very good military equipment manufacturing infrastructure and by and large they are self-sufficient in their production capabilities'
International oil prices retreated from an over seven-year high but was still above $100 a barrel and continue to pose threat to India's inflation rate and current account deficit. While there are no supply concerns as the oil route remained open, consumers will feel the pinch when PSU oil firms start passing on the increase in international rates through a revision in petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a pause for over three-and-a-half-months in view of elections in Uttar Pradesh and four other states. The government is "closely monitoring the situation" and will "take appropriate steps as and when required", a top official said. Brent crude oil surged past $105 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2014, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Lisa Curtis, who served as deputy assistant to President Trump and as National Security Council senior director for South and Central Asia from 2017 to 2021, said she expected the same bumps for India and the US, as in Trump's first term, including tariff, dependence on Russia over arms supply and oil purchase from Iran. Curtis, however, said both countries could never enter an alliance but develop a partnership that is "short of an alliance". She hoped them to achieve a cooperation that deters China, but also prepares both countries in case of a crisis or conflict, be it in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, or another flare-up on the India-China border.
'By his words, actions, and body language during their joint press appearance wanted to convey his personal respect and, more broadly, his desire to work closely with India.'
From the Sensex basket, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti, Reliance Industries, Nestle, Bharti Airtel, UltraTech Cement, Kotak Mahindra Bank and JSW Steel were among the major laggards. Bajaj Finance climbed nearly 1 per cent higher.
President Trump, in a move that could have implications on India's energy security, on Monday decided not to grant sanctions exemptions to any oil customers of Iran, further squeezing Tehran's top export commodity.
India's exports to Iran have been falling over the last one year, amid decline in rupee reserves of the West Asian economy. Going ahead, the possibility of augmenting exports to Iran may not be easy for India, considering the geopolitical tensions - Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts - and the West Asian country's support for Russia and Hamas, people aware of the matter said. Exports to Iran saw a downward spiral since November last year.
America's decision to give India exemption from imposition of certain sanctions for the development of the port is driven by the South Asian strategy, which was announced by President Donald Trump in August.
India's total purchase of oil from Russia in a month is probably less than what Europe does in an afternoon, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said.
International oil prices have hit a six-month low, helping Indian fuel retailers breakeven on petrol but they continue to lose money on diesel - the most used fuel in the country, officials said. The world's best-known crude benchmark, Brent was trading at $94.91 per barrel on Thursday after concerns of a global recession led to it slipping to a six-month low of $91.51 on the previous day. The current rates are a relief to India, which is 85 per cent dependent on imports for meeting its oil needs.
It is learnt that Lavrov is expected to travel to India either on Thursday or Friday after concluding a two-day visit to China.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty on Thursday gave up all early gains to settle lower as surging oil prices amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine hit investor sentiment. The 30-share BSE Sensex started the trade on a higher note and jumped 527.72 points in morning deals to a high of 55,996.62. However, during the afternoon trade it surrendered all its early gains and finished at 55,102.68, lower by 366.22 points or 0.66 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
India's crude oil import bill is set to exceed $100 billion in the current fiscal year ending March 31, almost double its spending last year, as international oil prices trade at seven-year highs. India spent $94.3 billion in the first 10 months (April-January) of the ongoing financial year that started April 1, 2021, according to data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). It spent $11.6 billion in January alone when oil prices had started to surge.
Italy, Greece, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey also figure in the list released by Pompeo, who said over 20 countries have cut their oil imports from Iran, reducing purchases by more than one million barrels per day.
The United States on Friday exempted some countries, including India and China, from the tough Iranian sanctions act as they continue to reduce their dependence on Iranian oil.
India's trade deficit with Russia continued to widen for the second consecutive year to $57 billion in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), with Moscow becoming New Delhi's largest source of crude oil imports. All eyes will now be on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia during July 8-9, where he is set to meet President Vladimir Putin. This will be Modi's first visit to the Kremlin since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began over two years ago.
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
Is likely to give another six-month reprieve from financial sanctions to India, South Korea, Turkey and others.
PM Modi went to New York this time not to engage in polemics, but to find solutions to global problems. He made some progress on several matters, even on reform of the UN Security Council, when the US made a major concession for the first time that six permanent members without veto, including India, could be considered
'No matter how severe sanctions the UN security council imposes on North Korea, the impact of the sanctions would depend on how faithfully they are enforced by China,' says Dr Rajaram Panda.
US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley said these are by far the strongest measures ever imposed on North Korea.
A spokesman for Gibraltar's government also confirmed that police proceedings against four members of the crew had ended.
Iran's growing proximity to China may have also played a part.
Indian Ambassador to the US Harsh Vardhan Shringla said India has stopped importing oil from Iran after the United States refused to extend exemption from sanctions earlier this month.
A task force set up by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (Meity) for transforming India into an "electronic and semiconductor products" nation is on the verge of finalising its report, which is likely to recommend an allocation of Rs 44,000 crore between 2024 and 2030 to support homegrown companies in their quest to develop products and build global brands. The task force's recommendations include significant incentives: Rs 15,000 crore dedicated to electronic products (systems), Rs 11,000 crore for semiconductor products, and Rs 18,000 crore for various other incentives such as talent development, common infrastructure, logistics, and technology & IP (intellectual property) acquisition, a member of the panel revealed.
The United States has lifted most of its sanctions against Iran after a UN watchdog reported that Tehran had complied with a nuclear weapons deal.
The crises of the 21st century, 9/11, the economic meltdown, COVID-19, Russia-Iran war and the Hamas-Israel war seem to be never ending. In this situation, Iran might be contemplating a nuclear deterrent to defend itself, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan, the distinguished long-time Rediff contributor who turns 80 on June 17..
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